Stop asking "should I buy a house now?" as if there's one answer. There isn't.
Today's housing market splits into four completely different playing fields: cash buyers, financed buyers, rate-locked owners, and builders sitting on unsold inventory. As Ryan Serhant, CEO of SERHANT, puts it, there's no longer a single housing market — there are four Americas.
Knowing which one you're in changes everything about your next move. Here's the breakdown.
Cash Buyers — 1 in 4 Purchases Now Skip the Mortgage Entirely
If you own a home already, your equity might let you buy the next one outright. Roughly 26% of existing home sales this summer were all-cash, according to the National Association of Realtors — about one in four buyers walking away from financing altogether.
- If you're buying: A cash offer with no financing contingency is catnip to sellers. Expect faster closings and more negotiating leverage.
- If you're selling: Cash certainty often comes at a lower price. Weigh the whole offer, not just the "no financing" line.
Where the Cash Is Concentrated
Most cash purchases cluster at the very top and very bottom of the price spectrum — luxury buyers and budget buyers, not the middle.
Financed Buyers — Rates Aren't Helping, But Sellers Are
If a mortgage is part of your plan, don't hold your breath for lower rates. Nearly half of experts surveyed by Fannie Mae actually raised their long-term rate forecasts this year.
The upside: Redfin data shows almost half of May sales included a seller concession, like a rate buydown or closing-cost credit.
Key takeaway: Stop waiting on rates. Negotiate the concession instead — if the monthly payment works today, that's your green light.
Rate-Locked Owners — Why So Few Homes Are Hitting the Market
About two in three homeowners currently have a mortgage rate under 5%, and most experts expect that lock-in effect to persist another three to five years.
That's why inventory feels tight — owners with ultra-low rates aren't in a hurry to trade up into something higher.
- If you're buying: The homeowners who do list usually have a real reason to move. They tend to be more motivated and flexible.
- If you're selling: Run the numbers on what your equity actually buys before writing off a move. If you have an FHA or VA loan, ask whether it's assumable — a genuine differentiator in this market.
Builders — Where the Real Deals Are Hiding
New construction may be your best opportunity right now. Builders are sitting on enough unsold inventory that it would take nearly ten months to sell it all at the current pace — well above the normal four-to-six-month range. That's pushing them toward price cuts and rate buydowns.
If you're shopping new construction: Bring your own agent and compare the full incentive package, not just the sticker price.
If you're competing with a builder as a seller: Lean into what they can't offer — mature landscaping, an established neighborhood, and a home that's move-in ready today instead of in eight months.
So, Should You Buy a House Now?
The honest answer: it depends entirely on which of the four markets you're standing in. A strategy that works for a cash buyer will backfire for a rate-locked seller, and vice versa.
That's exactly why a cookie-cutter approach to the 2026 housing market doesn't work — and why a personalized read on your specific situation matters more than any headline.
Ready to see what's actually available for your price point and position? View current listings to get a real feel for what's on the market right now.
Still not sure which of the four buyer types you fall into — or what that means for your timeline? Contact me for a private consultation and let's map out your next move together.
