Half the buyers I talk to are scared home prices are about to crash. The other half are quietly hoping they will.
A recent Clever survey found that 58% of Gen Z buyers are rooting for a crash, just so homeownership feels within reach. I understand that feeling. But before you plan your next move around a price drop, let's look at what the experts are actually forecasting.
Will Home Prices Crash? Here's What the Experts Predict
Every quarter, Fannie Mae surveys more than 100 housing experts for its Home Price Expectations Survey. The newest results are in, and the experts are not calling for a crash. Not even the pessimists.
- The panel expects prices to rise every single year through at least 2030.
- The average forecast is 14.7% growth over the next 5 years.
- Even the most pessimistic group still expects about 6.6% growth by the end of 2030.
If you've been waiting for prices to fall, you may be waiting a long time.
One caution: these are national numbers. Your neighborhood could run a little hotter or cooler, which is why local knowledge matters. You can browse current home listings here to see what's happening in your market right now.
Is the Market Cooling? How This Forecast Compares to Last Year
This survey runs four times a year, so we can track how the experts' mood changes.
A year ago, the panel expected 2.1% price growth this year. Now they're forecasting 2.5%, so the near-term outlook got a little more optimistic.
Looking at 2027 through 2029, the mood has cooled slightly. Each of those years is now expected to see a bit less growth than the panel predicted a year ago. That likely reflects the economic factors currently shaping the market.
Here's what matters: every single year still shows an increase. Only the pace has moderated.
And a slower climb isn't bad news. It's a sign the market is settling into a healthier, more normal rhythm after a few wild years. A little more growth here and a little less there, but the experts haven't budged on the big idea that prices keep rising.
The Real Cost of Waiting: $58,000 in Lost Equity
Percentages are nice, but what do they mean for your wallet?
Take a $400,000 home bought in January. Based on the panel's latest forecast, you could gain roughly $58,000 in equity over 5 years from price appreciation alone.
That's wealth you could be building while others sit on the sidelines waiting for a crash the experts don't see coming. With prices expected to keep climbing, waiting could mean paying more for the same home later.
What This Means for Buyers and Sellers
If you're a first-time buyer: Waiting for a price drop is a risky strategy. A smarter move is to get pre-approved, understand your budget, and explore your options while you plan.
If you're a homeowner thinking about selling: Steady price growth is good news for your equity. Knowing your home's current value helps you decide the right time to make a move.
If you're an investor: Forecasted appreciation through 2030 supports a long-term view of real estate as a wealth-building tool.
Bottom Line: Prices Are Expected to Rise, Not Fall
Whether you're bracing for a crash or hoping for one, the verdict from the experts is the same: home prices are still expected to rise.
The real question isn't "Will prices crash?" It's "What does this mean for my plans?" Let's answer that together.
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